What is space weather? In a few
words space weather describes the highly variable state of the solar and
cosmic radiation field, the interplanetary field and the near-Earth space
environment that can diminish the performance and reliability of space
and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life and
health.
Space weather effects cover a broad
spectrum: they include electronic failures, immediate and long-term hazards
to astronauts and aircraft crews, charging in satellites, distortions in
telecommunication and navigation satellite systems, power transmission
failures and disruption to rail traffic. In particular new space borne
and ground based technological systems will most likely be more vulnerable
to space weather effects.
The most striking feature of solar
radiation is their cyclic variation over approximately 11 years. As predicted
by solar physicists, the current solar maximum appears 2000/2001. During
this time the scientists expect an enhanced occurrence probability for
serious distortions in space weather starting e.g. as coronal mass ejections
(CME's) from the sun and then propagating towards the Earth where complex
coupling processes with the magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere
are initiated.
In addition to optical and particle
radiation measurements also radioastronomical methods can effectively be
used to monitor solar activity e.g. by the radiospectralpolarimeter
(40-800MHz) of the Astrophysical
Institute Potsdam. For aspects of the space weather event on 6 April
2000 click HERE.
To avoid or reduce the above mentioned
space weather induced hazards, there is a growing request for reliable
forecasts of hazardous space weather events for manned space activities,
for unmanned spacecrafts, for space and ground-based industry, for the
public and insofar for many aspect of daily life.
Since space weather effects can
cause a serious impact on present and future global satellite navigation
systems, the Institute for Communication and Navigation (IKN) of DLR is
principally interested in this area.
Space based navigation and positioning
is mainly influenced by the interaction of navigation signals in the L-band
frequency range with free electrons in the ionized part of the Earth's
atmosphere, called ionosphere. The global behavior of the ionosphere is
strongly controlled by typical space weather perturbations such as solar
flares or geomagnetic storms.
In particular strong gradients
and irregularities in the electron density structure of the ionosphere
reduce the accuracy and reliability of space based navigation systems such
as GPS and GLONASS. To reduce the impact of space weather on operational
navigation systems, solar radiation and the ionospheric ionization have
to be monitored in near real time and should be predicted at least some
hours ahead.
The Total Electron Content (TEC)
of the ionosphere can effectively be monitored by using ground (see TEC
maps) and space-based ( CHAMP)
GPS measurements. For application in operational navigation satellite systems
the monitoring data have to be processed in a near-real-time mode.
While U.S.A. and Japan already
establish national Space Weather programs, Europe (ESA) is studying needs
and benefits of a potential Space Weather Program. Such a program should
include a number of activities such as research of solar-terrestrial relationships,
development of models and forecasting methods, operational monitoring and
forecasts, maintenance of a permanent service for the broad user community,
education and training of users.
To raise public awareness on space
weather in Europe, the EU has started a project called "Space Weather"
that shall show people, organisations, industry and governments the impact
of space weather on every day life. The project consortia will organize
a space weather forum and a travelling exhibition within the European
Science and Technology Week (ESTW, 4 - 10 November 2002). Further on an
interactive CD-Rom and a video shall be produced (WWW
Greifswald).
Schematic view on space weather effects